A massive, gushing river in the sky — a mile high, more than 300 miles wide, and carrying up to 15 times the amount of water in the Mississippi River — is now drenching huge swaths of the West Coast. This phenomenon, known as an atmospheric river, has already brought more snow to northern California in a day than parts of New England have seen all winter.
I believe the scientific term for this statistic is “bonkers.”
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) February 13, 2019
The current storm system is not a Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river that originates over Hawaii (hence “pineapple”). Instead, it originates a bit further south and east of Hawaii, so it doesn’t get to share the same branding. (Last year, two Pineapple Expresses made stops in California.)
However, the mechanism behind the Pineapple Express and the current atmospheric river is similar. Such rivers occur when plumes of moisture over the Pacific Ocean start to mesh with a larger storm system. Sometimes years can go by without an atmospheric river, and sometimes several can occur in a single season.
A massive volume of precipitation soaking the West Coast all at once can be dangerous. Officials in California are already warning residents of flash flooding as rainfall starts to immerse some of the ordinarily drier parts of the state. On Wednesday, Sacramento broke a daily rainfall record with a 1.6-inch downpour over 24 hours. The prior record was 1.22 inches. There are also mandatory evacuations in Orange County.
Effective immediately, OCSD has issued an Evacuation Order (Mandatory) for the private residents within Trabuco Creek. Hard road closures are in effect at Trabuco Canyon at Rose Canyon and Trabuco Canyon at Plano Trabuco. No traffic is allowed past these road closures. pic.twitter.com/BVIIHorvJh
— OC Sheriff, CA (@OCSheriff) February 14, 2019
A key concern for California right now is mudslides. After back-to-back years of expansive, record-breaking wildfires, many areas of the state are denuded of the vegetation that would ordinarily anchor the soil in place. But even areas that haven’t seen fires recently are vulnerable. Sausalito, California, saw five inches of rain in the past 24 hours, which triggered a mudslide in the hilly Bay Area town and forced people to evacuate at least 50 homes.
The National Weather Service is now expecting more than seven inches of precipitation in Southern California and the Sierra Nevada through Saturday.
Over the long term, researchers expect that atmospheric rivers will grow more intense as the climate changes. As average temperatures go up, more water evaporates and the atmosphere can hold on to more moisture to dish out in storms.
“There is now emerging evidence that these atmospheric rivers, at least along the West Coast of the US, have become more intense over the last few decades, and there’s certainly an expectation that they will become more intense as the climate continues to warm,” Daniel Swain, a University of California Los Angeles climate scientist, told Vox last year.